Greece investment in 2026: mid-market M&A and growth-capital opportunities

Greek M&A moved decisively in 2025. Grant Thornton Greece reports 183 transactions that year, against 118 in 2024, 99 in 2023 and 111 in 2022, and total deal value of €20.6bn in 2025 versus €7.0bn in 2024. Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer cites a reported 25% increase in deal volume in 2025 and the highest aggregated deal value since 2012, which broadly agrees on direction even where the counts differ.

Different advisers define their universes differently. PwC Greece counted 181 completed M&A transactions in 2025 at an average size of €131 million, and recorded a record €28 billion of capital attracted by Greek businesses, a broader measure of capital raised than M&A deal value alone. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index rose 44.3% in 2025, and Euronext acquired over 74% of ATHEX in November 2025, according to HSF Kramer.

Headline value is flattered by a few very large transactions. Grant Thornton cites Allwyn and OPAP as a €9.0bn transaction in October 2025, and notes that the adjusted average ticket size in 2025 was lower than in 2024. In other words, the growth in deal count is real, and it is the part that matters most to mid-market buyers: a broader flow of smaller deals was happening beneath the megadeals.

For a corporate development director, the first implication is that the market is no longer a one-off privatisation story. There were 183 deals in 2025, enough to compare pricing, observe which sectors clear and see which buyers win. The second is that sector rotation matters: the leaders by value changed every year from 2022 to 2025, while TMT led by volume throughout.

What to do: build a Greek transaction database from your own sources, not from headlines. Record target, sector, size, buyer type and structure for every deal since 2022, then calibrate your own valuation view against it. A pipeline built on observed pricing and clear precedent is far better than a pipeline built on the excitement of a recovery narrative.

The reconciliation of sources is itself a useful discipline. A buyer who quotes one adviser's total in an investment committee paper will be challenged by a colleague who has seen another's. State the source and definition every time, prefer deal counts to values when judging breadth, and use value only to understand which large transactions moved the headline. Consistency of method matters more than the choice of dataset.

The investment case rests on a more stable platform than at any point since 2010. The European Commission reports Greek GDP grew 2.1% in 2025 and projects 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027 as the Recovery and Resilience Facility winds down. Public debt fell to 146.1% of GDP in 2025, almost 43 percentage points below its 2018 peak, and is forecast to reach 134.4% by 2027.

Public finances are in surplus. The general government balance recorded a surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, and the Commission expects a surplus to persist. Unemployment fell to 8.4% in the last quarter of 2025 and is projected at 7.9% in 2027, but the Commission also notes long-term unemployment is the highest in the EU. Inflation averaged 2.9% in 2025 and is forecast to rise to 3.7% in 2026 on energy prices.

The banking system is the other pillar. Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said the system-wide NPL ratio had declined to 3.6% by Q3 2025, that return on equity has reached around 12%, and that the stock of legacy loans has fallen 95% since March 2016. Moody's upgrade to Baa3 from Ba1, reported by the Associated Press as the last major agency to lift junk status, completed the return to investment grade.

Two cautions are warranted. Growth is moderating as EU recovery funds taper, and the Commission expects output growth to decline further in 2027 as investment decelerates with the end of the facility. And the investment-grade story is already known to the market. The opportunity for a disciplined buyer is not a general re-rating of Greece but selective entry into companies that can grow with or without public support.

What to do: stress-test any Greek target against a case in which GDP growth is 1.6% and the recovery fund no longer supports demand. If the equity story depends on public projects, apply an appropriate discount. If it depends on exports, tourism, services, technology or consolidation, the downside is lower, and the debt capacity of the target improves as the banking system continues to normalise.

For the investment committee, the message is that Greece now looks like a mid-sized European economy with above-average growth, a recovering banking sector and a high but declining debt burden. That profile supports acquisitions financed with a mix of equity and local debt, provided the target is operationally sound. It does not support leveraged bets on a continuing upswing in valuations without operating improvement.

Enterprise Greece, using Bank of Greece provisional data, reports FDI inflows of 12.6 billion euros in 2025 (12,555 million), compared with 7.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 68.9%. To Vima, reporting Bank of Greece figures, puts 2025 inflows at roughly 5% of GDP, against €4.5 billion or 2.4% of GDP in 2019. The step-up is in both scale and share.

The momentum continued in 2026. FDI inflows reached €7.6 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up from €3.9 billion a year earlier, though the reporting attributes much of the rise to two bank recapitalisation events and notes that other months averaged much less. A buyer should treat the monthly series as lumpy and judge the trend over years rather than months.

The sector mix is changing. Energy attracted €4.1 billion in 2025, or 33% of the total, while real estate management drew €1.7 billion, financial and insurance services €1.5 billion, information and communications €1.4 billion and transport and storage €1.2 billion. Manufacturing attracted €393 million. Of the 2025 total, 41% involved mergers and acquisitions, which confirms that FDI and M&A are overlapping channels.

For the corporate development director, this shows where the competition is. Energy and real estate are crowded by large and well-capitalised institutions. Information and communications, financial services, transport and manufacturing look less saturated, and mid-sized businesses in those fields will attract fewer bidders. Where the foreign share of capital is low, a strategic partner may find governance-light and operationally ambitious companies.

What to do: segment the target universe by how much foreign capital has already arrived. A sector with a €4.1 billion annual flow is competitive; one with €393 million is unproven but may be less contested. Weigh the pricing benefit of less competition against the lower number of precedents when valuing the company, and plan for a longer diligence on operations and markets.

Real estate deserves a separate note. To Vima reports that real estate inflows declined to €2.4 billion in 2025 from €2.8 billion in 2024, the first decline in foreign interest in the sector since 2020. The figure suggests the investor base is broadening toward operating businesses, which is positive for corporate buyers looking for assets that generate cash from customers rather than from property values.

PwC Greece's 2025 deal review gives the clearest map of where transactions cluster. TMT recorded the highest number of transactions over the past five years, with 43 deals. Financial services recorded 25 transactions with a total value of €3 bn in 2025, and energy and renewables 20 transactions totalling €2.9 bn. Food and beverage had 19 transactions, one of its most active years of the last five.

Private equity is present but not dominant. PwC records 35 private equity transactions in 2025, with strong activity in healthcare, leisure and TMT, representing 16% of total deal value. In food and beverage, private equity accounted for 42% of deal value. Grant Thornton similarly ranks TMT first by volume in each year from 2022 to 2025. The picture is of a market where financial and strategic buyers coexist.

These sectors share useful characteristics for a mid-market buyer: many founder-led businesses, fragmented competitors, export potential or regulated demand, and room for professionalisation. TMT includes software and services companies where the buyer can bring product, distribution or capital. Food and beverage offers brand and export platforms. Healthcare has private operators and diagnostic chains. Financial services offers insurance and fintech niches as banking consolidates.

The caution is about definition. Sector classifications differ among advisers, and values in the headline data are dominated by large deals, so the mid-market is easy to overstate. Use transaction counts, average ticket size and your own enterprise-value bands to identify a true mid-market set, and focus on companies with revenue that supports a deal you can complete without a consortium.

What to do: build a sector scorecard covering growth, fragmentation, regulatory exposure, export content, availability of targets and the level of private equity competition, then score the five sectors above. The exhibit below offers a starting structure. Use it to select two sectors for deep work rather than spreading thin across all five, since local relationships and diligence quality will decide results.

The practical consequence for outreach is that owners in these sectors are already being approached by advisers, banks and funds. A cold email asking for a call will compete with several others. Lead instead with a specific idea: a named capability gap you can fill, a market you can open, or a consolidation logic that benefits the family. Specificity signals seriousness and saves the owner time.

Most mid-sized Greek companies are family-controlled, and PwC's Greek report on the 12th Family Business Survey shows how much work remains on governance. It found that 86% of Greek family businesses view technological advancement as a key growth driver, yet only 31% are investing in digital transformation and AI adoption. Intent is high; execution capital and skills are lacking.

The governance data are more striking. According to the same survey, 50% of family boards are made up solely of family members, up from 39% in 2023, and shareholder agreements have dropped from 38% in 2023 to 33% in 2025. Just 22% are updating or creating a formal succession plan, and 39% lack a clear leadership transition plan. Concentration is rising at a time when complexity is rising too.

This is what an acquirer or growth investor finds in diligence: strong customers and brand, thin management depth, informal related-party arrangements and no plan for the next generation. Each is a risk, but each is also an opportunity to add value. A partner who can introduce independent directors, shareholder agreements, reporting discipline and professional management is giving the family something it cannot easily source for itself.

The implication is that price is not the only axis of competition. A founder weighing two offers will ask who will protect the company's character and its people, and how the family's role will change. Investors who answer with a governance package, not just a term sheet, will be better positioned, particularly where the family wants to retain a minority stake and a continuing role.

What to do: prepare a governance offer before you approach targets. Include board composition, reserved matters, a shareholders' agreement template, a succession framework, reporting calendar and a 100-day plan. Present it as a menu from which the family chooses, so that it reads as support rather than control. Evidence that you have done this elsewhere would help, but it must be real, and we claim none for ourselves.

It is worth stating what the survey does not say. It does not say that family businesses are badly run; many have survived shocks that destroyed larger rivals. It says that formal structures have not kept pace with scale and that the proportion of boards without outsiders is rising. A thoughtful buyer will treat this as a gap to close together with the family, and will not frame it as a weakness to exploit in negotiation.

Regulation has changed the process for foreign buyers. HSF Kramer reports that Law 5202/2025 established Greece's first comprehensive FDI screening mechanism, requiring prior notification of foreign investments in sensitive sectors, effective from 23 May 2025. Buyers from outside the EU in energy, infrastructure, health, telecoms or technology should plan for screening time and for the possibility of conditions.

Public-private partnerships will provide another channel. HSF Kramer notes PPP projects worth €630 million are up for signature in 2026, and infrastructure-related M&A was very active in 2025. For a corporate development team with an operating business in construction, utilities, health or transport, PPPs and concessions are an entry route that is distinct from private M&A and that comes with long-dated revenue.

The Commission's forecast shows that growth slows to 1.6% in 2027 as the Recovery and Resilience Facility winds down. That implies a cliff in public-funded investment demand. Companies that have grown by serving RRF-funded projects will see a slowdown, and sellers may seek to transact before it becomes visible. Buyers should insist on a view of the order book that separates recurring demand from funded projects.

Cross-border structure also matters. Greek M&A typically involves family sellers, banks and sometimes state-linked stakeholders, so completion depends on approvals, financing and in some cases competition clearance. Build the timetable around the longest approval, not the shortest, and prepare regulatory narratives early, particularly for sensitive-sector acquisitions where screening is now a formal step.

What to do: map every target for screening exposure on day one, and engage local legal and tax advisers before pricing. Include a screening condition and a long-stop date in the sale and purchase agreement. For PPP-related opportunities, identify the contracting authority, funding source and signature timetable, and treat any slippage as a base-case assumption rather than a surprise.

A final regulatory point is timing. Because the screening regime is new, practice is still developing, and advisers will learn from early decisions. Build relationships with local counsel who have handled notifications, ask them about authorities' typical questions, and prepare the investor's ownership structure in full detail from the start. Surprises about ultimate beneficial ownership are among the commonest causes of delay in any screening system.

Success in the Greek mid-market is a matter of process. The sequence we suggest starts with a clear thesis on two or three sectors, moves to a longlist built from the transaction database, then to relationship-led outreach to owners, advisers and banks, followed by diligence that covers governance as well as financials, and ends with an integration plan that respects the family's role. The exhibit shows this as steps.

Local presence is central. Founder-led companies decide through personal trust, and many transactions never reach a formal auction. A resident team, or a trusted local partner, shortens the time to a first meeting, supplies context that a data room cannot and helps judge whether a seller is ready. Use advisers who know the family and the lenders, and always check that they hold the permissions required for the activity.

Diligence needs to be adapted to the family-company context. Verify related-party transactions, informal guarantees, tax compliance, ownership of key assets and the dependence on one or two family members. Ask what happens to key relationships if the founder steps back. These items rarely appear in standard checklists but they frequently decide whether an investment succeeds or becomes a distraction.

Capital structure and returns should reflect the recovery stage. With the banking system repaired, acquisition debt is more available than it was, but covenants and local collateral practices differ from Northern Europe. Model downside cases with slower growth, an end to EU funds and higher inflation. This is information for planning and not investment advice, and all regulated activity should be carried out with appropriately authorised firms.

What to do: set a six-month plan. In month one, finalise the thesis and the sector scorecards. In months two and three, build the longlist and meet ten owners. In months four to six, run diligence on two or three, with a governance offer ready. The aim is to test three live opportunities rather than to wait for the perfect one, since access, trust and timing rather than price will decide who succeeds.

Finally, keep a record of what you learn. Each owner conversation reveals something about pricing expectations, family dynamics and local market practice. A simple shared log kept by the deal team, reviewed monthly, becomes an asset of its own and guards against the loss of knowledge when individuals change roles, which is a real risk for corporate development functions.

Karter McKinley supports corporate development teams with sector thesis work, target identification, owner outreach and the governance and integration planning that family-owned Greek businesses look for in a partner. Our M&A and corporate development support runs alongside authorised legal, tax and financial advisers, and we do not provide investment advice or promise returns.